China: Tracing the Art of Brinkmanship
The blazing dragon does not seem forthcoming to bury the hatchet
China is preparing to celebrate the ‘Two Centenaries’. The year 2021 will mark the centenary of Communist Party of China and the year 2049 will mark the centenary of People’s Republic of China. During the celebration of these two centenaries, China is aiming to showcase itself as a global superpower.
In an attempt to leave an indelible imprint on the world order of 21st century, China is undertaking large scale modernization of its military, economy and polity. It is in a quest to gain strategic advances in global geopolitics. The mighty dragon desires to realize the present century not just as ‘Asian Century’ but as ‘Chinese Century’ in particular. The golden five stars on red in canton will be a force to reckon with.
Maritime Domain
The Chinese intentions are conspicuous. It started a few years earlier, when the arena of action was limited to South China Sea. The power tussle was zeroed in on certain group of islands like Paracel, Spratly, Scarborough, Natuna among others. China and several ASEAN countries were locked in confrontation over the control of strategic group of islands in the region. The dragon was undertaking unilateral military stationing, naval patrolling and infrastructure development in disputed regions of South China Sea. The aggression was in global limelight when the case of Philippines v. China reached Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague. On July 12, 2016 the arbitration tribunal constituted under Annex VII of United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS) ruled against PRC’s maritime claim in South China Sea. The ruling was unequivocal that PRC’s ‘Nine Dash Line’ had no legal basis but China showed utter disregard to the award by declaring it ‘null and void’. The region is still tense.
The aggressive stance maintained by PRC in maritime domain has led to an evolution of geopolitical discourse. It had resulted in reinvigoration of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and development of several strategic policies like Security and Growth for all in the Region (SAGAR) and free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. New developments in maritime conflicts are definite as People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is having a grand plan to acquire six aircraft carriers. Besides Liaoning (Type 001) and Shandong (Type 002), Type 003 is under development and PLAN is building its capacity in indigenous aircraft carrier technologies. These six would probably be used in three sets of twos, each for Indian Ocean, western Pacific and China’s near sea including South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Territorial Domain
As the year changed so the theatre of drama shifted to South Asia in 2017. India-China-Bhutan tri-junction was the new site of bellicosity. The 72 days Doklam standoff marked the beginning of several upcoming territorial disputes. However, the schism was managed sagaciously through timely disengagement by both sides. The relations even entered a romantic phase before falling apart. The year 2018 and 2019 witnessed two informal summits in the form of ‘Wuhan Spirit’ and ‘Chennai Connect’ respectively. Relations were in its heyday. Both the sides were ready to celebrate 70 years of diplomatic relations in 2020 but the bond plunged to all time low. China’s belligerence in Eastern Ladakh, particularly in Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso, had caused egregious damage to this relation. The two sides, still, have shown wisdom by not allowing the misadventure to become a casus belli. Even after nine rounds of military talks, it is yet to manifest the side that will have the last laugh.
Considering the restive stance and intransigence of PRC, negotiations will surely take time. Things may complicate due insidious developments of several border villages along disputed frontiers by China. Yumai village that materialized in 2017 has been a successful model for China in Shannan prefecture. Similar civilian border settlements of herder community are coming up along disputed borders. Pangda village in Bhutan and another village in Tsari Chu valley of Upper Subansiri of Arunachal Pradesh are striking examples of astute Chinese planning. All such tactics will encumber the process of de-escalation.
It is widely recognized that both the sides have perceptional differences regarding the border demarcation. The Chinese efforts are more oriented towards changing status quo unilaterally and reinforcing territorial claims through policy of intimidation and brinkmanship rather through policy on negotiations and dialogue. Mechanisms like confidence building measure and border peace and tranquility agreement exist but they cut no ice with China.
Air Domain
The return of Tsai Ing-wen in democratic Taiwan in 2020 and growing U.S. support is a concern for China. As the world look forward to global bonhomie in 2021, PRC is back again with air incursions over Republic of China. The Chinese bomber planes and fighter jets over Taiwan’s air space is a sequel of brinkmanship in yet another milieu. In coming years this art can continue even to space domain and in Arctic as well.
Themes in this art of brinkmanship are legion but a character is common. The dragon will play its part to the hilt. The world must expect more sabre-rattling as the ‘Two Centenaries’ are approaching. The modus operandi will remain the same as the dragon does not seem forthcoming to bury the hatchet.